Projected margin
Projected total
both teams' points
Click a player to open them in the Prop Lab.
The board works without this. To see live sportsbook prices beside the model's numbers:
Your key stays in this browser only. The free plan gives 500 credits a month: every game's lines cost 3, and each player stat adds about 1 per game. Odds only sit beside the model's numbers. They never change the projections.
Tap any price on the board to add it here. The slip adds up the chance the whole parlay hits, allowing for legs in the same game that move together.
Odds sit beside the model's numbers. They never change the projections.
Edges come from the model's chances against each price. They compound in a parlay, and so do the model's misses: if each leg's chance is a few points too high, a +20% parlay can be a losing one. The "if the model is 3 points high" line shows that case. Track slips here to find out which it is.
A parlay pays only at one book, so pick the book you bet with. "Best price at any book" mixes books and is for comparing, not for placing. Odds never change the projections.
Record
Slips hit
Units won
Return per unit
Each slip is one unit at the payout when it was tracked. A pushed or voided leg drops out and the slip pays on the rest. Parlays hit rarely, so the record says little until there are dozens of slips; the Expected column is what the model said they'd win on average.
Gain = share of error removed. The Friday report is what's known before the weekend; known inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. Each stat uses whichever version was more accurate on the Friday report.
Same-game parlays at regulars' obvious lines, each leg randomly an over or an under. "Unrelated" multiplies the legs' chances; "linked" is the Parlay tab's method. Log loss: lower is better. The last two rows are the pairs with the strongest links, by whether the picks lean with the link or against it.